No relief from the Market heat

Hello Boodle members and welcome to the July 2022 edition of the Boodle blog! If you are new here, then welcome, and if you are a member, we thank you for your loyalty. With 6 months already behind us, we thought we would take a short look back, and then give our assessment on what is happening in the market right now, and what to expect in the near and long term.
We got the GDP numbers on the economy and for the first quarter (Q1) the number came in at negative 1.5%. The economy shrank. You can feel this shrinkage in many ways, foremost was in inflation.
Record high gas prices, food prices and housing prices are three important indicators that Americans are paying more and getting less for their dollars.
Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP is the textbook definition of a recession. Analyzing our data, we believe there is a 66% chance that Q2 GDP numbers will come in negative, and at that point an official recession will be announced.
The stock market has been and remains in a bear market, the second since 2020. You can see that in the year-to-date numbers of the S&P 500 at 21.51% and the year-to-date NASDAQ numbers at 29.97% as of Friday, July1.
We maintain our position since February that it will remain particularly challenging to make money in a market with conditions like those we have been blogging about since January. Inflation has yet to be neutralized, and the Federal Reserve is, just getting started on raising interest rates.
We imagine the market as either a Bull, or a Bear. Inside every Bull is a bear that is feeding on the optimism of rising stock prices. Then there is the Bear, which feeds the Bull by discounting stock prices, until the prices are so low, that the Bear yields to a new Bull market.
This may sound cute & cuddly, but this is investors money that we are speaking about, and we take this seriously.
We do expect that the November 2022 election will send a strong signal if the Democrats lose the House, and/or the Senate. A Democrat loss will provide an opportunity for gridlock, which is a process that keeps the spending in Congress to a minimum. Also, the President will be unable to advance his agenda, and we see that possibility as relief for investors.
These are tough times for many Americans, and at Boodle we share in the anxiety that many are feeling. We encourage you to direct all new money to the money market portion of your portfolio, and do not add any new money to your stock and/or mutual fund holdings. We believe a potential buying opportunity will possibly materialize after the November 2022 midterm elections, at which time Boodle will notify you to add to your stock and mutual fund holdings. We thank you for sticking with us through these difficult months in the market, and we ask that you join us next month as we look to August and what it may offer us. Until then, stay focused, stay disciplined, and keep learning about the markets and investing. Have a great July!